Forecasting
Predict Pharma Performance with Precision and Agility
We build custom forecasting models—top-down, bottom-up and patient-based—tailored to therapeutic areas, geographies, and product lifecycle stages (pre-launch, launch, growth, maturity, LOE) across any therapeutic area not limited to Oncology, Immunology, CVS, Respiratory, GI amongst others.
Our models integrate:
Internal Data – Historical sales, launch curves, adoption curves, peak share estimations, compliance & persistence rates and brand performance.
External Market Signals – Epidemiology trends, payer policies, competitor activity and market access dynamics.
RWD/RWE – Claims/EMR to validate cohorts, switch behaviour, adherence, time-to-discontinuation.
Methods & Tooling:
Our forecasting tools are scenario-ready, allowing for quick sensitivity analysis and adaptation to evolving market conditions.
Model Types: Top-down and bottom-up market share, patient-based cohort models, and mixed/hybrid approaches.
Advanced Analytics: Scenario trees, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulations for uncertainty bands.
Technology: Delivered in Excel (stakeholder-friendly) or Python (automation & scale), with governance, version control, and full audit trials.
Dashboards: Interactive Power BI/Tableau front-ends for drill-downs by country, channel, account and indication.
Key Outcomes:
Tailored Forecasting Models – Excel or Python-based frameworks customized to therapy area, markets and lifecycle stage.
Scenario Planning & Sensitivity Analysis – Clear visibility into potential market shifts.
Comprehensive Projections – Revenue, volume and patient-level forecasts.
Faster Time-to-Decision – Automated data refresh and CI integration reduce cycle time from weeks to days.
Financial & Operational Alignment – A single, trusted view for Brand, Access, Finance and Supply Chain.